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The final step of CLIMB involves doing inference on the parsimonious Gaussian mixture using MCMC. MCMC is an iterative method, and thus the user needs to specify how many iterations to use. We recommend running a quick pilot analysis–say, for 10 iterations. This pilot analysis will give a good idea of how long an analysis will need to run for a given larger number of iterations (say, 20,000 iterations).
You can run an MCMC simply with the function run_mcmc()
.
This function calls a script written in Julia, and executes everything at the
default settings in the CLIMB methodology. The user needs to provide 4
arguments:
dat
: the input data you’ve been using throughout the
analysis
hyp
: the hyperparameter values estimated in the
previous step
nstep
: number of MCMC iterations to run
retained_classes
: the parsimonious list of candidate
latent classes, after finally filtering out by prior weights as done in
the previous step
First, we load in our data, list of candidate latent classes, and estimated hyperparameters.
data("sim")
load("output/hyperparameters.Rdata")
<- readr::read_tsv("output/retained_classes.txt", col_names = FALSE) retained_classes
Now we are ready to launch an MCMC:
set.seed(100)
<- run_mcmc(sim$data, hyp = hyp, nstep = 1000, retained_classes = retained_classes)
results <- extract_chains(results) out
Running the MCMC...100%|████████████████████████████████| Time: 0:02:14
The object results
contains 3 objects:
chain
: the estimate parameters over the course of
nstep
iterations
acceptane_rate_chain
: an \(M\times\)nstep
matrix of the
acceptance rates for each cluster covariance. The proposals for each
cluster are adaptively tuned such that the acceptance rates converge to
about 0.3
tune_df_chain
: the tuning degrees of freedom across
the chain, adjusted to yield optimal acceptance rates
results
is effectively a Julia object, so the first
thing you should do with this object is to extract the data for R’s
use:
out
will contain all the different chains from the MCMC.
For example, you can check the MCMC trace plots. Here is the trace plot
of the mean from the first cluster in the third dimension:
plot(out$mu_chains[[1]][,3], type = "l", xlab = "iteration", ylab = expression(mu[3]))
More specifically, extract_chains()
returns a list with
4 elements. First, recall that M
is the number of input
classes, D
is the dimension of the data, and let
iterations
be nstep+1
. The output from
extract_chains()
contains:
mu_chains
: a list with M
elements, each
element a matrix of dimension iterations x D
.
mu_chains[[i]]
is the MCMC samples for the mean vector of
cluster i
.
Sigma_chains
: a list with M
elements,
each element an array of dimension D x D x iterations
.
Sigma_chains[[i]]
is the MCMC samples for the covariance
matrix of cluster i
.
prop_chain
: A matrix of dimension
M x iterations
, containing the MCMC samples for the mixing
proportions of each class.
z_chain
: A matrix of dimension
n x iterations
, containing the MCMC samples for the class
labels of each observation. These labels correspond to the row indices
of retained_classes
(above).
These posterior samples can be used for many downstream analyses.
In addition to viewing trace plots, one could run multiple parallel
MCMC chains in order to assess convergence quantitatively via the
Gelman-Rubin convergence diagnostic. The code below replicates the
previous MCMC 3 times, and calculates the potential scale reduction
factors (PSRFs) for each parameter estimate. Ideally, each PSRF should
be close to 1. Note that calculate_gelmanRubin
returns NA
for parameters associated with a 0 class label, since these parameters
do not actually get sampled during MCMC.
# Run 3 replicate MCMC chains
<- purrr::map(1:3, ~ run_mcmc(sim$data, hyp = hyp, nstep = 1000, retained_classes = retained_classes))
results3
<- purrr::map(results3, extract_chains)
chain_list <- rep(list(1:200), length(chain_list))
burnin_list
# calculate potential scale reduction factors for each parameter
<- calculate_gelmanRubin(chain_list, burnin_list)
PSRFs
str(PSRFs)
List of 3
$ PSRF_mu : num [1:13, 1:3] 1.13 1.01 1 NA NA ...
$ PSRF_Sigma: num [1:3, 1:3, 1:13] 1 NA 1.01 NA NA ...
$ PSRF_prop : num [1:13] 1.12 1 1 1.01 1.02 ...
Below we plot histograms of the PSRFs for each parameter. Even after running these chains for a short time, we already have achieved good convergence properties. Unsurprisingly, cluster mean and proportion estimates converge faster than the covariance parameters. In practice, for larger and more complex datasets, chains will need to be run for longer than what was done here.
library(ggplot2)
::map(PSRFs, ~ as.vector(.x) %>%
purrr::extract(!is.na(.))) %>%
magrittr::imap_dfr( ~ data.frame(parameter = .y, PSRF = .x)) %>%
purrrggplot(aes(x = PSRF)) +
geom_histogram() +
scale_x_continuous(trans = "log10") +
facet_wrap(~parameter, labeller = labeller(.cols = ~ gsub(pattern = "PSRF_", replacement = "", .x))) +
theme_bw()
print(sessionInfo())
R version 4.2.1 (2022-06-23)
Platform: aarch64-apple-darwin20 (64-bit)
Running under: macOS Monterey 12.5
Matrix products: default
BLAS: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.2-arm64/Resources/lib/libRblas.0.dylib
LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.2-arm64/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib
locale:
[1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8
attached base packages:
[1] stats graphics grDevices utils datasets methods base
other attached packages:
[1] ggplot2_3.3.6 CLIMB_1.0.0 magrittr_2.0.3
loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
[1] Rcpp_1.0.9 mvtnorm_1.1-3 tidyr_1.2.0
[4] assertthat_0.2.1 rprojroot_2.0.3 digest_0.6.29
[7] foreach_1.5.2 utf8_1.2.2 R6_2.5.1
[10] plyr_1.8.7 evaluate_0.15 highr_0.9
[13] pillar_1.8.0 rlang_1.0.4 rstudioapi_0.13
[16] whisker_0.4 jquerylib_0.1.4 rmarkdown_2.14
[19] labeling_0.4.2 readr_2.1.2 stringr_1.4.0
[22] munsell_0.5.0 bit_4.0.4 compiler_4.2.1
[25] httpuv_1.6.5 xfun_0.31 pkgconfig_2.0.3
[28] htmltools_0.5.3 tidyselect_1.1.2 tibble_3.1.8
[31] workflowr_1.7.0 codetools_0.2-18 JuliaCall_0.17.4
[34] fansi_1.0.3 withr_2.5.0 crayon_1.5.1
[37] dplyr_1.0.9 tzdb_0.3.0 later_1.3.0
[40] brio_1.1.3 grid_4.2.1 gtable_0.3.0
[43] jsonlite_1.8.0 lifecycle_1.0.1 DBI_1.1.3
[46] git2r_0.30.1 scales_1.2.0 cli_3.3.0
[49] stringi_1.7.8 vroom_1.5.7 cachem_1.0.6
[52] farver_2.1.1 LaplacesDemon_16.1.6 fs_1.5.2
[55] promises_1.2.0.1 doParallel_1.0.17 testthat_3.1.4
[58] bslib_0.4.0 ellipsis_0.3.2 generics_0.1.3
[61] vctrs_0.4.1 iterators_1.0.14 tools_4.2.1
[64] bit64_4.0.5 glue_1.6.2 purrr_0.3.4
[67] hms_1.1.1 abind_1.4-5 parallel_4.2.1
[70] fastmap_1.1.0 yaml_2.3.5 colorspace_2.0-3
[73] knitr_1.39 sass_0.4.2